2026 MLB season · live now

Win the first inning.
And the next eight.

A model output for every MLB game — NRFI scores, splits, 1st-inning ML, K's, full-game ML & Run Line. Sharp-line edges. Auto-built parlays. Locks at first pitch.

Free pick every day Season closed Back for Opening Day 2027

Now on Android. Picks & live updates in your pocket.

Track record

★ pick accuracy, auto-logged every game.

Live numbers — auto-logged from every completed game since the model launched. No cherry-picking, no curated wins.

—%

RFI ★ Pick Accuracy

— · all-time

—%

Splits ★ Pick Accuracy

— · all-time

—%

ML ★ Pick Accuracy

— · all-time

—%

Strikeouts ★ Accuracy

— · all-time

—%

Full Game ML ★ Accuracy

— · all-time

—%

Full Game RL ★ Accuracy

— · all-time

Two flagships · five markets

Every game. Every market.
One model.

Two flagship markets — RFI and Full Game ML & Run Line — plus splits, 1st-inning ML, and strikeouts. Same Skellam-Poisson engine, tuned per market. ★ tiers gated by edge, volatility, and sharp-line agreement.

★ FLAGSHIP · FIRST INNING

Will a run score in the 1st inning?

The original NRFI/YRFI score. Blends starting pitcher form, opposing batter quality, park, weather, umpire, and lineup confirmation into a single 0–100 score. ★★★ Tier A requires strong score + low volatility + positive edge vs Pinnacle fair.

Today's slate · 10 gamesNRFI score 0–100

NRFI ★ pick YRFI ★ pick No pick · below edge

Explore RFI →

★ STRONGEST · FULL GAME

Full-game ML & Run Line

Same Skellam-Poisson engine extended to nine innings. RL ★ is the model's strongest market — 71% L30. Full-game ML catches underdogs the books still misprice. ★ tier gated by edge ≥ 3pp + Pinnacle-fair agreement.

Last 10 ★ picksEdge vs Pinnacle fair · pp

Full Game ML Full Game RL

Explore Full Game →

SPLITS · ATSI / HTSI

Per-side scoring chance

Each half of the 1st, scored separately. Pair the strongest Scoreless ★ legs into auto-built parlays.

22.4%

Away score

36.7%

Home score

ML · 1ST-INNING 3-WAY

Who wins the 1st?

Away / Tie / Home. TIE wins over 50% of matchups — the sharpest edge most books still misprice.

AwayTie · 57.2%Home

STRIKEOUTS · K1

Will the starter K in the 1st?

Per-pitcher whiff + called-strike rates vs the lineup's contact profile. STRIKEOUT ★ or ZERO ★.

80.8%

Skubal · STRIKEOUT

λ 1.65 · vs MIN

How it works

One Skellam-Poisson engine. Five markets.

Each game's lambda (expected runs per side per inning) is built from starter form, opposing lineup quality, park, weather, umpire zone, and a confirmed-lineup snapshot. The same lambdas feed every market — RFI, splits, ML, K's, and full-game.

Probabilities are then compared to Pinnacle's de-vigged fair price. Edge ≥ 3pp + low volatility + positive sharp agreement triggers a ★ pick. Edge magnitude determines tier (★ / ★★ / ★★★).

Pinnacle de-vig Confirmed lineups Park & weather Umpire zone Skellam-Poisson Live snapshot lock

Pipeline · per game

Ingest MLB API · weather · umpire · Pinnacle odds

14 inputs

↓

Lambdas Per-side per-inning expected runs

λa · λh

↓

Distribute Skellam-Poisson → P(every outcome)

PMF

↓

Score & gate Edge vs de-vig · volatility · lineup confirm

★ Tier

What you get

Built for serious MLB bettors.

All five markets, every day, with the same sharp-line gating logic. First-inning and full-game. Auto-parlays. Live in-game updates. On the web or the Android app.

Three-tier ★ stack

★★★ Tier A = biggest edge + lowest volatility. ★★ = solid edge. ★ = positive edge.

Half-inning splits

ATSI / HTSI scored separately. Pair Scoreless ★ legs into auto-built parlays.

3-way 1st-inning ML

Away / Home / Tie predictions. Volatility (Shannon entropy) gates the ★ picks.

Per-pitcher K's

STRIKEOUT ★ or ZERO ★ for each starter based on their early-inning whiff rate.

Park & weather baked in

Wrigley wind, Coors altitude, umpire zone tendency — all factored before lock.

Auto parlays

Top 2-leg and 3-leg combos across Splits and K's. Only ★ legs. Combined model probability shown.

Sharp-line edges

Pinnacle prices pulled live, de-vigged, compared to model. Real edge, not "lean".

Full-game ML & Run Line

Same engine, 9 innings. RL is the strongest market at 71% accuracy L30.

Live accuracy

Every pick logged automatically. Accuracy stats refresh nightly — no cherry-picking.

Questions?

Answers.

What's the difference between a ★ pick and a Lean?

Leans are directional model output (NRFI Lean, YRFI Lean) shown whenever the score crosses a threshold. ★ picks are gated: they require a strong score, low volatility, AND positive edge vs Pinnacle's de-vigged fair price. ★★★ / ★★ / ★ tiers are graded by edge magnitude.

When does a pick lock?

At first pitch. Pre-game scores update continuously as lineups, weather, umpire, and prior-day stats roll in. Once the first pitch is thrown, the snapshot is frozen and locked into history.

What books does NRFI.net pull odds from?

Pinnacle, as the reference sharp book for de-vigging. Edges shown are Pinnacle-fair, so they represent true edge against the sharpest line — not a recreational book's juice-padded number.

What's the cancel policy?

Nothing is on sale right now, and no account is being billed — every subscription was ended when the season closed.

Is this licensed for sports betting in my state?

NRFI.net is an analytics service, not a sportsbook. We don't take wagers. We're available wherever you can read a website. State laws on placing bets vary — check your local regulations.

Win the first inning.
And the next eight.

★ pick accuracy, auto-logged every game.

Every ★ pick, settled at the lock line.

Every game. Every market.
One model.

One Skellam-Poisson engine. Five markets.

Built for serious MLB bettors.

Subscriptions are closed.

Questions?

First inning.
Full game.
Back for Opening Day 2027.

Win the first inning. And the next eight.

★ pick accuracy, auto-logged every game.

Every ★ pick, settled at the lock line.

Every game. Every market. One model.

One Skellam-Poisson engine. Five markets.

Built for serious MLB bettors.

Subscriptions are closed.

Questions?

First inning. Full game.Back for Opening Day 2027.

Win the first inning.
And the next eight.

Every game. Every market.
One model.

First inning.
Full game.
Back for Opening Day 2027.